Money paper planes


Controlling risk by measuring risks

Our products

Avinomics offers essential tools for deal originators and risk managers in aircraft financing, acquiring credit-card obligations, and trading aviation securities. Our products are based on our unique ability to measure the quality of every airline’s strategic position. Each month, we collect real-time and forward-looking airline performance indicators.
Our calculations position each carrier in an analytical matrix, based on complex equations that demand the mathematical power of three clusters of 64 computer processors running in parallel. Our database reaches back 20 years, which has allowed us to stress test our models. Our measurements have proved accurate even in periods of crisis.

Network Stress Indicator

NSI – the only strategic-risk measure for airlines

The Network Stress Indicator (NSI) helps deal originators strike more and better deals, and gives risk managers more certainty when assessing portfolio and transactional risks. It does this by benchmarking how every airline is girding for the future by measuring the steps it is taking to prepare its network – moves to parry competitors making inroads, or moves to take advantage of market opportunities. Network stress is common to all airlines, but it varies in nature – good or bad – and in degree. The NSI measures the subtlest changes in strategic direction, and shifts in competitiveness, slow or sudden. By using up-to-the-minute and forward-looking data, the NSI identifies risks before they trigger crises. In tests using past data, the NSI raised a red flag in the twelve months prior to a carrier’s default in more than 90 percent of cases. We give our customers proprietary software that allows them to filter, recombine, and visualize our risk data on bespoke charts. Customers can benchmark one airline against one or more rivals, or against peer groups defined by size, business model, or regional focus. Our software allows the integration of customer specific, confidential, and third-party data.

Airline Stock Trading Strategies

Airline stock trading strategies

Avinomics enables investors in airline stocks to conceive and use risk-controlled trading strategies. The weighting of any airline stock in a portfolio is determined by the quality of the airline’s competitive and strategic position, which we measure every month. Our premise is that a carrier with a superior and sustainable competitive strategy will generally achieve a higher stock-market valuation. Airlines usually change their strategies slowly, so monthly portfolio adjustments are generally modest and transaction costs generally low. Investors usually have to commit to bigger stock trades only when Avinomics measures clear signs of a carrier’s approaching default.

Bespoke Airline-Industry Workshops

Bespoke airline-industry workshops

Avinomics offers its customers from diverse fields of the aviation industry tailor-made workshops on how to put our risk data into illuminating context. Our clients demand penetrating views on specific airlines, and broader perspectives on regional markets, business models, fleet strategies, and many other aspects. Our views and perspectives are founded on facts and figures, they are the result of measuring, not opinion. We can extract any number and combination of measures from our database to take a deep dive into the intricacies of the strategic positioning of an airline. Or we can open a numbers-based vista on one particular airline – how its strategy is faring in the competitive environment. Or we can calculate a panorama that looks at an array of players in one region, or with the same business model.